ARES · NASA Johnson Space Center

Patrick M. Shober

Planetary scientist · NASA Postdoctoral Fellow, Johnson Space Center

Meteorites are most of what we know about how the solar system formed — and a biased sample of it. I work out what that bias is, using fireball cameras, weather radar and telescopic surveys.

Patrick M. Shober

Latest publications

Illustration of the two-step filter: thermal fragmentation near the Sun breaking apart dark primitive material, then fireballs burning through the atmosphere above a meteorite-strewn desert

Perihelion filtering and the meteorite record

Flagship result · Nature Astronomy 2025

Meteorite collections aren't a fair sample of what hits Earth. What survives to the ground is decided by an object's history close to the Sun, not only where it came from.

April 2025

All publications →

A little about me
and my work

I’m a planetary scientist at NASA Johnson Space Center, in the Astromaterials Research and Exploration Science (ARES) division. I study small bodies — asteroids and comets — to understand how the solar system formed and how it has changed since.

Most of what we know about that history comes from meteorites, and meteorites are a badly biased sample. We have the samples, but we don’t know how they were sampled. Before a rock reaches a collection it has to survive repeated close passes to the Sun, then atmospheric entry, then a search that has to find it, and each of those steps preferentially destroys a particular kind of material. Working out what that selection removes is what makes the samples interpretable.

Most of my work combines all-sky fireball camera networks with Doppler weather radar, and compares both against asteroids and comets observed telescopically. At NASA I’m using Bayesian methods to combine optical fireball observations with radar, which gives better dark-flight trajectories, better predictions of where meteorites land, and a clearer view of the fragmentation and ablation a rock goes through on the way down — all of which can be tied back to what telescopes saw before it arrived.

The goal is to make the whole sequence routine: observe an object in space, record its entry with cameras, radar, infrasound, seismometers and spectra, then recover pieces of it on the ground. That matters most for objects 10–100 m across, small enough for surveys to miss and large enough to do damage, so the same measurements that tell us how the solar system is put together also feed planetary defense.

I earned my PhD at Curtin University in 2022 with the Desert Fireball Network, spent two years at Paris Observatory, and asteroid (33964) Patrickshober is named after me.

Behind the papers

The fireballs, instruments and figures behind the results — each one credited to whoever made it

The Winchcombe fireball · The 2021 fall recorded by UK all-sky cameras, minutes before the meteorite landed on a driveway in Gloucestershire Video: UK Fireball Alliance camera networks McMullan et al. 2024, Meteoritics & Planetary Science
M2026-A1, a newly confirmed meteor stream · 282 meteors from a stream shed by a disintegrating asteroid, traced through the inner solar system Animation: P. Shober Shober 2026, The Astrophysical Journal
Three-dimensional visualization of dark-flight trajectories descending toward the ground
Falling, unseen · After the fireball goes dark, fragments drift for two to ten minutes before landing — the part of the trajectory radar can still see Visualization: P. Shober
Gold FRIPON all-sky camera on a snowy mountain summit at dusk
A FRIPON all-sky camera · One node of the French network whose data-reduction pipeline I compared against three others Photo: FRIPON / Vigie-Ciel Shober et al. 2026, Astronomy & Astrophysics
Weathered Desert Fireball Network observatory with solar panel on red earth under blue sky
A Desert Fireball Network station · The Australian network I worked on during my PhD, built to survive years alone in the Nullarbor Photo: Desert Fireball Network, Curtin University
World map showing career moves between Cleveland, Perth, Paris, and Houston with fireball-network logos
Cleveland → Perth → Paris → Houston · One career, four cities Figure: P. Shober
Radar reflectivity map of meteorite fragments detected over Osceola, Florida Interactive: see a fall in weather radar · MetDetect picks falling debris out of NEXRAD weather radar
My asteroid